Will Canada and the EU agree to expanded mobility rights?

As of Fri, 18 Sep 2026 00:13:37 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (3.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes3.0%3.0¢97.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

If Canada and the European Union conclude an agreement expanding rights for Canadians to live or work in the EU after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement qualifies if it is signed by authorized Canadian and EU authorities, or Canada and the EU jointly announce that negotiations have concluded and the agreed rights have been adopted. It must expand Canadians’ legal rights to reside or work in an EU member state compared with those available at Issuance. Entry into force before the deadline is not required. Proposals, ongoing negotiations, unilateral announcements, and frameworks whose core terms remain under negotiation do not qualify. Existing short-stay, CETA business-entry, and bilateral youth-mobility rights alone do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Sources

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