What will the biggest earthquake be on Nov 4, 2026?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 08:54:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Magnitude of at least 5.2 (84.0%), Magnitude of at least 5.4 (65.0%), Magnitude of at least 5.6 (50.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude of at least 5.2 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 5.4 | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 5.6 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 5.8 | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.0 | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.2 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.4 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.6 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 7.0 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.8 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Magnitude of at least 5.2:
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Nov 4, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Sources
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