Who will be a part of the next government of British Columbia?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price BC Conservatives (74.0%), BC NDP (28.0%), BC Greens (7.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Tue, 24 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC Conservatives | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| BC NDP | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| BC Greens | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| OneBC | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| CentreBC | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for BC Conservatives:
If a coalition that includes BC Conservatives make up the next elected ruling government of British Columbia before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test. A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description. These individual-party descriptions do not specify such an arrangement, so confidence and supply without a qualifying ministerial position does not count. If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed tempo…
Sources
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