Who will be arrested this year?
As of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 13:01:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price Ilhan Omar (23.0%), John Brennan (19.0%), Mahmoud Khalil (18.0%). The market has $2.6M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| John Brennan | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Susan Rice | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| James Clapper | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Letitia James | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Lee Jun-seok | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Tom Homan | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Anthony Fauci | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Lisa Cook | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Adam Schiff | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Lee Jae Myung | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Hillary Clinton | 3.6% | 3.6¢ | 96.4¢ |
| Kash Patel | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2.6M
- Liquidity: $2.6M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Ilhan Omar:
If Ilhan Omar is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
Sources
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