When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1 (97.0%), Before Nov 14 (96.0%), Before Nov 11 (90.0%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Before Nov 14 | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Before Nov 11 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Before Nov 6 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Before 4AM Nov 4 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Before 1AM Nov 4 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Nov 4 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Before 11PM Nov 3 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $16K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1:
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms (main website, television broadcast, or official social media if that is their primary medium) and not be prefaced with qualifiers suggesting uncertainty such as "appears to," "likely to," "probably," or "may have." The relevant time is when the call first becomes publicly visible on the outlet's platform, not when it may have been written, decided internally, or prepared for publication. If the call is later retracted, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes based on the initial call time. Preliminary exit polls, reporting of other outlets' calls, conditional statements, opinion pieces, and technical glitches do not qualify as definitive calls.
Sources
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