2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price AOC defeats JD Vance (10.0%), Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance (9.0%), JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom (8.0%). The market has $136K in volume and closes on Tue, 07 Nov 2028.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
AOC defeats JD Vance10.0%10.0¢90.0¢
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance9.0%9.0¢91.0¢
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom8.0%8.0¢92.0¢
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance6.0%6.0¢94.0¢
JD Vance defeats AOC5.0%5.0¢95.0¢
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance5.0%5.0¢95.0¢
AOC defeats Marco Rubio4.0%4.0¢96.0¢
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio4.0%4.0¢96.0¢
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris3.0%3.0¢97.0¢
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance3.0%3.0¢97.0¢
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico2.0%2.0¢98.0¢
James Talarico defeats JD Vance2.0%2.0¢98.0¢
JD Vance defeats James Talarico2.0%2.0¢98.0¢
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio2.0%2.0¢98.0¢
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris2.0%2.0¢98.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for AOC defeats JD Vance:

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeats JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

Sources

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