Which states will Democrats win a trifecta this year?
As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:34:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price Minnesota (85.0%), Michigan (77.0%), Arizona (72.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Michigan | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Arizona | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Oregon | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Pennsylvania | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| Wisconsin | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Nevada | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Vermont | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Minnesota:
If ALL of the Democratic candidate for Governor of Minnesota, the Democratic Party in the Minnesota Senate, and the Democratic Party in the Minnesota House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Democratic candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Democratic Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. If two parties have the same number of seats in a chamber, the party entering government will be considered to have won the most seats in that chamber. The party entering government is the party whose member the chamber elects as Speaker of the House or President of the Senate when it convenes for its 2027 session; for the Pennsylvania Senate, it is the party of the Lieutenant Governor elected on November 3, 2026. If the presiding officer is elected under a power-sharing agreement, the party with the higher share of the vote across that chamber’s November 3, 2026 general election races will be considered to have won the most seats.
Sources
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