120th Congress: Who will run for House Republican leader?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Jim Jordan (73.0%), Mike Johnson (51.0%), Steve Scalise (39.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jordan | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| Mike Johnson | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Steve Scalise | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Tom Emmer | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| August Pfluger | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Jim Jordan:
If Jim Jordan has announced that they will run for House Republican leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. House Republican leader means the top post the House Republican Conference elects for the 120th Congress after the 2026 midterm elections: its nominee for Speaker of the House if Republicans win the House majority, or Minority Leader if they do not. An announcement made before the House majority is known, including a conditional one, counts only if it is for the post that becomes the top post. Running only for a lower post, such as Majority Leader or whip, does not count. Standing as a candidate in that leadership election after Issuance, including unopposed, counts as announcing a run. An announcement made…
Sources
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