Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (19.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 18 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure after Issuance and before Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. “Blocks” means that USPS refuses to accept, returns, holds, or materially delays ballot mail because of voter-list, barcode, certification, portal-submission, or similar election-specific requirements imposed pursuant to the covered measure. The threshold may be aggregated across incidents, but each ballot counts only once; warnings, promptly corrected interruptions, and ordinary postal problems unrelated to the covered measure do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Sources
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