Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
As of Fri, 04 Sep 2026 21:07:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (2.5%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $65K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.