Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:21:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (98.0%). The market has $325K in volume and closes on Thu, 05 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $325K
- Liquidity: $325K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters. Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes. The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution). The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.
Sources
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