Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:07:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price 10+ (28.0%), 20+ (8.0%), 50+ (5.1%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| 20+ | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 50+ | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 94.8¢ |
| 30+ | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| 40+ | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $39K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do…
Sources
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