Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...?
As of Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:04:13 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 31 (100.0%), December 31 (99.8%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.1¢ |
| December 31 | 99.8% | 99.8¢ | 0.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for October 31:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https:/…
Sources
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