Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:48:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (10.4%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes10.4%10.4¢89.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this mar…

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