Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
As of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 21:11:14 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (97.5%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.5% | 97.5¢ | 2.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Vacant seats will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of a particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".) All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of O…
Sources
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