Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:13:02 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (97.7%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.7% | 97.7¢ | 2.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $18K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".) A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus…
Sources
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