Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 18:57:55 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (15.5%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $212
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.