Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:44:14 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (82.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 20 Oct 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes82.0%82.0¢18.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain" on Question 10 in at least one of the electoral divisions for which Elections Alberta reports the results of this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An electoral division in which "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Each electoral division's result will include all valid votes attributed to that electoral division in the official results; votes that are not attributed to any specific electoral division will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated in any electoral division before its vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is…

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