Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?
As of Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:09:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jul 1, 2027 (52.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (44.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jul 1, 2027:
If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. The announcement may concern any government office in any election year.
Sources
Related markets
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- California Governor winner? (Person)
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.