Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 15:47:58 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (12.0%). The market has $127K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $127K
- Liquidity: $20K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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