Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
As of Mon, 10 Aug 2026 01:30:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (11.5%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Tue, 12 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $531
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). If that page is unavailable or has not been updated, resolution will use NOAA Coral Reef Watch's own data for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station in any other format it publishes (for example, its regional virtual station time-series data files, available at https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/data.php), which apply the same station-level methodology. Readings for indi…
Sources
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