Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:57:33 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $19K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes5.0%5.0¢95.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No district counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from House composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is count…

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