Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:41:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (2.1%). The market has $64K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $64K
- Liquidity: $448K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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