Will any country leave NATO by...?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 10:55:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (4.8%). The market has $411K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $411K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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