Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:35:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Friedrich Merz (89.5%), Ursula von der Leyen (86.8%), Ahmed al-Sharaa (38.0%). The market has $114K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz | 89.5% | 89.5¢ | 10.5¢ |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 86.8% | 86.8¢ | 13.2¢ |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Andy Burnham | 36.5% | 36.5¢ | 63.5¢ |
| Mark Rutte | 33.5% | 33.5¢ | 66.5¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 32.5% | 32.5¢ | 67.5¢ |
| Lula da Silva | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Pope Leo XIV | 13.3% | 13.3¢ | 86.8¢ |
| Xi Jinping | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Kim Jong Un | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Maria Corina Machado | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Reza Pahlavi | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $114K
- Liquidity: $163K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified…
Sources
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