Who will Trump name as AI czar?
As of Fri, 02 Oct 2026 07:47:10 UTC, Kalshi traders price Jay Clayton (48.0%), Michael Kratsios (11.0%), Joe Gebbia (8.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Clayton | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Michael Kratsios | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Joe Gebbia | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Scott Kupor | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Taylor Budowich | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Jacob Helberg | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Sriram Krishnan | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Alexandr Wang | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Sean Cairncross | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| David Sacks | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Arvind Raman | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Ryan Baasch | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Sam Corcos | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Jay Clayton:
If the White House announces Donald Trump's selection of Jay Clayton as AI czar after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first official announcement after Issuance selecting an AI czar will be considered. An official announcement by President Trump, including a post on his Truth Social account, is sufficient; Senate confirmation or assumption of duties is not required. If none of the people selected in the first qualifying announcement is listed, or no qualifying announcement occurs before the deadline, all listed markets resolve to No. If multiple people are jointly named as AI czar in the first qualifying announcement, the $1 payout is divided equally among all people named in that announcement. Only listed people receive a payout in this event.
Sources
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