Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:25:35 UTC, Kalshi traders price Susie Wiles (26.0%), Pete Hegseth (17.0%), Howard Lutnick (14.0%). The market has $271K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susie Wiles | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Markwayne Mullin | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Kelly Loeffler | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Doug Collins | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Doug Burgum | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Jamieson Greer | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Linda McMahon | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Michael Kratsios | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Keith Sonderling | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $271K
- Liquidity: $271K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Susie Wiles:
If Susie Wiles is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Sources
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