Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:22:09 UTC, Polymarket traders price None before 2027 (38.5%), Susie Wiles (30.4%), Pete Hegseth (11.6%). The market has $114K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 38.5% | 38.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
| Susie Wiles | 30.4% | 30.4¢ | 69.5¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 11.6% | 11.6¢ | 88.4¢ |
| Mike Waltz | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.7¢ |
| Russell T. Vought | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Lee Zeldin | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Doug Burgum | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| Kelly Loeffler | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
| Linda McMahon | 0.8% | 0.8¢ | 99.3¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.3¢ |
| Jamieson Greer | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $114K
- Liquidity: $278K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and i…
Sources
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