Which states will Republicans win a trifecta this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price Florida (78.0%), Texas (77.0%), Kansas (70.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Texas | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| Kansas | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Georgia | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Ohio | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Wisconsin | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Iowa | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Alaska | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Arizona | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Vermont | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Michigan | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Nevada | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Minnesota | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Pennsylvania | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Florida:
If ALL of the Republican candidate for Governor of Florida, the Republican Party in the Florida Senate, and the Republican Party in the Florida House of Representatives win their respective elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Each state market requires the Republican candidate to win the 2026 election for Governor and the Republican Party to win the most seats in both chambers of that state's legislature. Each chamber is decided by its full membership after the November 3, 2026 general election, including members whose seats were not on the 2026 ballot. For Alaska, any Republican candidate for Governor counts, using the ultimate winner after ranked-choice tabulation, and party affiliation is determined at the time of the general election. The Republican Party must also organize each Alaska chamber: the first permanent presiding officer (Senate President or Speaker of the House) elected by that chamber of the 35th Alaska Legislature, which convenes in January 2027, must be a Republican chosen by a majority caucus or coalition in which more than half of the members are Republicans. A temporary presiding officer does not count, and a bipartisan coalition without a Republican majority does not count even if Republicans hold the most seats. The Alaska market cannot resolve Yes before both chambers have elected their permanent presiding officers. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. S…
Sources
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