Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Rand Paul (71.0%), Thom Tillis (48.0%), Mitch McConnell (39.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Thom Tillis | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Mitch McConnell | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Susan Collins | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Bill Cassidy | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Lisa Murkowski | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| John Fetterman | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Ruben Gallego | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Maggie Hassan | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Tim Kaine | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Rand Paul:
If Rand Paul votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Rand Paul to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.
Sources
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