Which party will win the Texas State Senate in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:28:36 UTC, Polymarket traders price Republican Party (91.6%), Party D (50.0%), Party E (50.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 04 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 91.6% | 91.6¢ | 8.3¢ |
| Party D | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Party E | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Party F | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Party C | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Party A | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Party B | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Democratic Party | 3.8% | 3.8¢ | 96.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $45K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Texas State Senate in the 2026 Texas midterm election. A party wins control of the Texas Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Lieutenant Governor's Office as a result of the specified election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first majority leader of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no such majority leader is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attri…
Sources
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