Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:43:35 UTC, Polymarket traders price Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) (76.6%), Green Party (MP) (72.5%), Centre Party (C) (58.5%). The market has $120K in volume and closes on Mon, 14 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 76.6% | 76.6¢ | 23.4¢ |
| Green Party (MP) | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| Centre Party (C) | 58.5% | 58.5¢ | 41.5¢ |
| Left Party (V) | 22.5% | 22.5¢ | 77.5¢ |
| Liberals (L) | 20.5% | 20.5¢ | 79.5¢ |
| Moderate Party (M) | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 5.9% | 5.9¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $120K
- Liquidity: $77K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Sources
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