Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:23:47 UTC, Polymarket traders price Linke (79.0%), SPD (63.4%), Grüne (61.4%). The market has $26K in volume and closes on Mon, 21 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linke | 79.0% | 79.0¢ | 21.0¢ |
| SPD | 63.4% | 63.4¢ | 36.6¢ |
| Grüne | 61.4% | 61.4¢ | 38.6¢ |
| CDU | 19.5% | 19.5¢ | 80.5¢ |
| BSW | 3.7% | 3.7¢ | 96.3¢ |
| FDP | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.2¢ |
| AfD | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 98.0¢ |
| FW | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $26K
- Liquidity: $43K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Sources
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