Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:52:00 UTC, Polymarket traders price Other (50.0%), J.D. Vance (39.5%), Ted Cruz (37.0%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Dec 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 39.5% | 39.5¢ | 60.5¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 21.6% | 21.6¢ | 78.3¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 5.2% | 5.2¢ | 94.8¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Donald Trump | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Rand Paul | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $51K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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