Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 16:47:20 UTC, Polymarket traders price Nigeria (47.5%), Somalia (37.0%), South Sudan (36.5%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 47.5% | 47.5¢ | 52.5¢ |
| Somalia | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| South Sudan | 36.5% | 36.5¢ | 63.5¢ |
| Republic of the Congo | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Rwanda | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Burundi | 17.5% | 17.5¢ | 82.5¢ |
| Ethiopia | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| India | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| United States | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Canada | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| China | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $25K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sources
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