Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 14:55:38 UTC, Polymarket traders price S + MP (23.0%), S + MP + C + V (16.5%), S (16.0%). The market has $29K in volume and closes on Sun, 01 Aug 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| S + MP | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| S + MP + C + V | 16.5% | 16.5¢ | 83.5¢ |
| S | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| M + KD + L | 9.2% | 9.2¢ | 90.8¢ |
| M + KD + L + C | 8.8% | 8.8¢ | 91.1¢ |
| M + KD + L + SD | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| S + MP + V | 5.7% | 5.7¢ | 94.3¢ |
| Other | 4.9% | 4.9¢ | 95.2¢ |
| S + MP + C | 3.7% | 3.7¢ | 96.3¢ |
| S + MP + C + KD | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| S + MP + C + L | 0.9% | 0.9¢ | 99.1¢ |
| S + C | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.3¢ |
| M + KD + SD | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| S + M | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| M | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $29K
- Liquidity: $247K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market…
Sources
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