Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:24:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price UAE (42.5%), USA (19.1%), Turkey (18.5%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 42.5% | 42.5¢ | 57.5¢ |
| USA | 19.1% | 19.1¢ | 80.8¢ |
| Turkey | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| No Talks by December 31, 2027 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Qatar | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.8¢ |
| China | 4.1% | 4.1¢ | 95.9¢ |
| Switzerland | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
| India | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.6% | 1.6¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Poland | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Other | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Finland | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Russia | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Italy | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| Belarus | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $295K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on…
Sources
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