When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 2027 (65.0%), Before Dec 2026 (51.0%), Before Nov 2026 (9.0%). The market has $27K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2027 | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Before Dec 2026 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Nov 2026 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Before Oct 2026 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $27K
- Liquidity: $27K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 2027:
If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Sources
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