When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (45.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (26.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (8.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 07 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care". Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient. A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation. Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the catastrophic-risk duty-of-care proposal being negotiated by Senators John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar.
Sources
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