What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 01:36:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price Over 2.5 (72.5%), 2.25–2.5 (27.5%), 2.0–2.25 (0.5%). The market has $7K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 72.5% | 72.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| 2.25–2.5 | 27.5% | 27.5¢ | 72.5¢ |
| 2.0–2.25 | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| 1.5–2.0 | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| Under 1.5 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $7K
- Liquidity: $19K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Over 2.5:
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Sources
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