What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 00:34:29 UTC, Polymarket traders price Dilution of Iran's Uranium (13.5%), Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) (11.5%), ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) (11.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $334K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Dilution of Iran's Uranium:
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control. The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution me…
Sources
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