USMCA extended in 2026?
As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 20:17:16 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (8.0%). The market has $3 in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement. The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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