U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:43:11 UTC, Polymarket traders price 5–15% (78.5%), 15–25% (8.5%), 35%+ (5.6%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5–15% | 78.5% | 78.5¢ | 21.5¢ |
| 15–25% | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| 35%+ | 5.6% | 5.6¢ | 94.4¢ |
| 25–35% | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| <5% | 4.9% | 4.9¢ | 95.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $35K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Sources
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