U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
As of Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:53:18 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (4.2%). The market has $77K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $77K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.