US government budget balance this year
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above -9.0% of GDP (82.0%), Above -8.5% of GDP (65.0%), Above -8.0% of GDP (38.0%). The market has $37K in volume and closes on Tue, 27 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -9.0% of GDP | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Above -8.5% of GDP | 65.0% | 65.0¢ | 35.0¢ |
| Above -8.0% of GDP | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
| Above -7.5% of GDP | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Above -7.0% of GDP | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Above -6.5% of GDP | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above -6.0% of GDP | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $37K
- Liquidity: $37K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above -9.0% of GDP:
If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: Negative values represent budget deficits. A higher, less-negative value represents a smaller deficit. For example, −4.0% is above −5.0%. “General government net lending/borrowing” is calculated as government revenue minus total expenditure. A negative value represents net borrowing, or a deficit, while a positive value represents net lending, or a surplus. This IMF measure may differ from budget-balance figures published by national authorities because of differences in government coverage, accounting methods or reporting periods. Only the value reported by the IMF for the applicable country and year will be used. The market will use the value initially published for the applicable country and year in the April 2027 edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook database, regardless of any subsequent revisions or updates. For countries whose government-finance data are presented by the IMF on a fiscal-year basis, the applicable period is the fiscal year identified by the IMF for that year.
Sources
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