US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4% (88.0%), Above 5% (88.0%), Above 3% (88.0%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Thu, 05 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| Above 5% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| Above 3% | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| Above 7% | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Above 6% | 87.0% | 87.0¢ | 13.0¢ |
| Above 8% | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 9% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above 10% | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Above 11% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 12% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Above 13% | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $11K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4%:
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 4%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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