Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?

As of Wed, 19 Aug 2026 16:08:47 UTC, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 (40.5%), December 31, 2026 (25.0%). The market has $46K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
June 30, 202740.5%40.5¢59.5¢
December 31, 202625.0%25.0¢75.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.

Sources

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