Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 19:01:14 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 5 (74.7%), October 18 (69.5%), October 2 (61.1%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 06 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 5 | 74.7% | 74.7¢ | 25.4¢ |
| October 18 | 69.5% | 69.5¢ | 30.5¢ |
| October 2 | 61.1% | 61.1¢ | 38.9¢ |
| October 20 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| October 21 | 54.5% | 54.5¢ | 45.5¢ |
| October 11 | 51.5% | 51.5¢ | 48.5¢ |
| October 4 | 51.3% | 51.3¢ | 48.6¢ |
| October 27 | 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ |
| October 26 | 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ |
| October 15 | 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ |
| October 30 | 50.5% | 50.5¢ | 49.5¢ |
| October 24 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| October 28 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| October 29 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| October 31 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the…
Sources
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