Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:07:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 6 (88.0%), October 16 (84.5%), October 11 (77.0%). The market has $191K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 6 | 88.0% | 88.0¢ | 12.0¢ |
| October 16 | 84.5% | 84.5¢ | 15.5¢ |
| October 11 | 77.0% | 77.0¢ | 23.0¢ |
| October 8 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| October 18 | 70.5% | 70.5¢ | 29.5¢ |
| October 22 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| October 29 | 64.5% | 64.5¢ | 35.5¢ |
| October 21 | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| October 4 | 62.7% | 62.7¢ | 37.3¢ |
| October 28 | 62.5% | 62.5¢ | 37.5¢ |
| October 27 | 62.5% | 62.5¢ | 37.5¢ |
| October 30 | 62.5% | 62.5¢ | 37.5¢ |
| October 25 | 61.5% | 61.5¢ | 38.5¢ |
| October 23 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| October 24 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $191K
- Liquidity: $272K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact d…
Sources
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