Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:24:16 UTC, Polymarket traders price September 26 (76.0%), September 29 (75.0%), September 21 (67.5%). The market has $181K in volume and closes on Sat, 26 Sep 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 26 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| September 29 | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| September 21 | 67.5% | 67.5¢ | 32.5¢ |
| September 28 | 60.5% | 60.5¢ | 39.5¢ |
| September 30 | 58.6% | 58.6¢ | 41.4¢ |
| September 24 | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| September 23 | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| September 27 | 55.5% | 55.5¢ | 44.5¢ |
| September 22 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| September 25 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| September 20 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $181K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact d…
Sources
Related markets
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
- Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
- UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
- Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.